A white Thanksgiving? maybe?

-
Thanksgiving Forecast — WWKSF Edition

Alright… I can’t ignore the current model trends anymore. So instead of waiting for everything to settle, I figured it’s time for a “What We Know So Far” update. (Yes, I’m actually calling it WWKSF. Yes, it’s absolutely becoming a blog tag.)

There’s been a lot of hype floating around about the possibility of a white Thanksgiving this year, and I get it! I like snow too, so part of me is rooting for it. But before we let the excitement take over, let’s look at what the data is actually saying right now.

For this breakdown, I’m focusing on the ECMWF, the GFS, and for fun, I’m throwing in the GDPS as well. We’re looking specifically at projected snowfall between November 26th and November 28th.

Quick note: Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to hint at early December snowfall potential… but this is a Thanksgiving post. We’ll save December for another day. Also, this is only focusing on the snowfall totals. This isnt a full forecast.


---

ECMWF: Not Exactly a SnowFest

According to the ECMWF, most of the meaningful snowfall is confined to the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula. For the southern half of Michigan? It’s showing mostly minor accumulations, generally less than an inch, if even that.

So yeah… not exactly living up to the hype so far.

---

GFS: The “Maybe This One Will Be Snowier?” Model

Well… maybe the GFS will save the excitement, right?

Right?

…Right?

Unfortunately, not really. The GFS is very similar to the ECMWF, slightly different placement, slightly different totals, but the same general idea. The GFS actually suggests even less snow for southern Michigan.
So once again: not the Thanksgiving snow map of your dreams.


---

GDPS: The Wild Card

I don’t use the GDPS often, no real reason, it just doesn’t end up in my usual rotation, but for the sake of curiosity, I checked it.

And finally, a different story.

The GDPS leans toward more snow around the Upper Peninsula and areas surrounding Lake Michigan, which is at least something for snow lovers to point at and say, “See? It could happen!”
If you’re rooting for a snowy Thanksgiving, this is the model to light a candle for.


---

So… What Do We Actually Know?

Overall? It’s a bit underwhelming if you’re dreaming of a statewide winter wonderland.

But, and this is a big “but” we’re still about 8 days out.
And models love being wrong at this range. They can overestimate, underestimate, or flip entirely within a day or two.

Personally, I don’t put full trust in snowfall totals more than 24 hours out. But ignoring this setup entirely would be… weird. Thanksgiving weather matters, and things can still shift.

I’ll have another update on November 20th to see if anything significant changes. For now, just take this as a calm, non-hyped WWKSF snapshot of where things stand.

I’m writing this at 1:57AM, so I desperately need sleep. Have an amazing day!
Or night. Or whatever time it is when you’re reading this.

Popular posts from this blog

Hello!

-
 This is tracking Michigan, a blog all about the weather of the great state of Michigan! I will explain this blog to you now. I am from Michigan a "Michigander" i want to talk about the weather information of Michigan, I do this because im into the weather. Here's some "FAQ" If you dont know, "FAQ" means Frequently Asked Questions. So here's some questions people ask and the answers to them: Q: How many platforms are you on? A: TMWX (Tracking Michigan Weather) is on Bluesky, Twitter, and this blogger. I wont increase this to other platforms in the future, mostly due to the fact: Q: How many people work on "Tracking Michigan"? A: Its only me, I dont have anyone else working or helping with the Twitter account, the Bluesky, and no one on this blogger, I just like being by my self. Q: Sources? A: The NWS. It's very rare i use others. Q: Are you a meteorologist? A: No. I am not a meteorologist, im just into weather. Most of this blog will...
Read more

COLD TEMPERATURES INCOMING:

-
Image
Major Cold Blast Incoming — Lake-Effect Snow Returns for Michigan.. A sharp drop in temperatures is on the way for Michigan beginning Friday, lasting through Monday and potentially into early next week. This stretch will bring well-below-normal temperatures, brisk winds, and periods of lake-effect snow, especially near the Great Lakes. --- OVERVIEW: Cold air will begin spilling into the region Friday as a broad upper trough settles across the Great Lakes. Daytime highs will struggle to climb out of the 20s and 30s, while overnight lows dip into the teens. Wind chills will make it feel even colder — at times in the single digits, particularly during the mornings and evenings. Here's the high and low temperatures for Friday: --- WEEKEND: A low-pressure system will track across the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, bringing a mix of rain and wet snow across much of the state. The exact rain/snow line remains uncertain and will depend on surface temp...
Read more

CURRENT TRICK OR TREAT CONDITIONS:

-
Image
Frankfort, Traverse City, Marquette, Munising, and possibly Muskegon, and Grand Haven could have poor trick or treating conditions for tonight, DONT CANCEL PLANS YET! Wait until 4 - 5 PM posts before canceling. The main issue for today is rain, and of course the cold. However the cold is way less of a problem then rain. Rain could completely ruin certain costumes or severely hinder them. Face paint-bassd costumes could be ruined for an example. If you live in these cities DONT CANCEL!  Night time is still several hours out. Thats enough time for things to change. Check back on this blog 4 - 5 pm EST. 
Read more