NEW: Moderate risk for Heavy snowfall
The Climate Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for Heavy snowfall.
Now, lets talk about this.
Temperatures will be below average for several days.
Over the past several days, ensemble guidance from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE has shown a range of possible large-scale patterns across North America. Despite the variability, confidence in the week-2 forecast for the Great Lakes region, including Michigan, is higher than normal because the major models continue to highlight the same overall theme: a significant push of colder air into the central and eastern United States as we approach the end of November.
For Michigan, this pattern strongly favors a sustained stretch of below-normal temperatures. A deepening trough over the central U.S. and periods of high-latitude blocking are expected to help deliver repeated surges of cold, dry Canadian air into the Great Lakes. While our region has already seen its first freeze, the upcoming cold looks capable of reinforcing early-winter conditions across both peninsulas.
One of the more notable signals is the potential for multiple rounds of snow. Ensemble solutions depict a series of shortwave disturbances tracking across the northern tier of the country, with several passing directly over or just south of the Great Lakes. Around Nov 28–30, a strengthening low pressure system over the Great Lakes is expected to generate widespread snowfall. The highest confidence for heavier snow totals is focused on areas traditionally prone to lake-effect enhancement, particularly the eastern U.P., the Keweenaw, the northwestern Lower Peninsula, and the snowbelts along Lakes Superior and Michigan. Probabilistic guidance supports a moderate risk for impactful snowfall in these zones during this period.
Strong winds also appear likely at times. Ensemble mean wind speeds exceed 20 mph across much of the Great Lakes region on Nov 28, associated with a tightening pressure gradient as a surface low moves from New England into the North Atlantic. Gusty conditions may continue at intervals into early December as additional disturbances pass through. These wind events will likely contribute to enhanced lake-effect snow bands and reduced visibility at times, especially in the traditional snowbelt regions.
Beyond Nov 30, confidence decreases in the exact timing and placement of individual systems, but the broader pattern still favors additional opportunities for snow. Even where totals remain uncertain, the combination of periodic trough passages, cold air, and lingering open water means lake-effect snow will remain a recurring possibility heading into early December.
Overall, Michigan is positioned for a colder, more active pattern as we move into week-2, with the highest potential impacts centered on lake-effect areas in both peninsulas.
We will continue watching this.
