POTENTIAL WINTERSTORM: Whats happening?
The CPC has issued a new outlook:
Now, you might be wondering: "Where did the moderate risk go?" Well, the moderate risk was for the 28th - 30th time period, this outlook is past that, meaning theres no longer a moderate risk. If you live in the areas that previously had a moderate
Then, its recommended you treat it like your still in one.
Here's what we know so far:
Model ensembles from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE have converged considerably for the week-2 period, showing strong agreement on the large-scale pattern. Ensemble guidance depicts deep troughing over both the Bering Sea and the western CONUS, with pronounced ridging stretching from the North Pacific into the Arctic. This configuration supports a southward push of cold air across the central U.S., likely bringing the first freeze of the season to portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. While these developments are noteworthy, the most significant local impacts for Michigan stem from the associated storm track and resulting snow potential.
A robust baroclinic zone is expected to set up across the central CONUS, anchored by persistent mid-level troughing in the West. Downstream, this pattern favors an active storm track from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. For Michigan, this means an elevated likelihood of widespread snowfall, including periods of enhanced lake-effect snow as persistent cold advection flows over the Great Lakes. Accordingly, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes, including all of northern Michigan and the U.P., through Nov 30–Dec 3. While snowfall is expected beyond this window as well, uncertainty increases with respect to storm intensity and accumulation totals.
Recent model cycles have hinted at the potential for a more organized and impactful winter storm, but ensemble consensus remains too limited to justify a moderate-risk hazard at this time. Still, the pattern strongly favors multiple rounds of accumulating snow across both Upper and Lower Michigan, with the highest totals most likely in the U.P., northwest Lower Michigan, and areas downwind of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.
Farther south, models highlight a separate corridor of heavy precipitation across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, driven by Gulf moisture interacting with the same frontal boundary influencing the Great Lakes region. While this heavier rainfall region remains well south of Michigan, its development may influence the timing and strength of cyclogenesis that ultimately affects the state, particularly with respect to wind and snowfall distribution.
Elsewhere, strong ensemble support exists for high-wind potential across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. While Michigan is not included in the current slight-risk wind area, the evolving storm track could enhance winds across the Great Lakes at times, especially along the Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan shorelines.
In summary, while the most extreme hazards in the national outlook highlight regions farther south and west, Michigan is poised for an active early-winter pattern, with:
Increased confidence in multiple rounds of snow, including lake-effect events.
Potential for more significant snowfall, especially in northern Michigan and the U.P., if stronger cyclogenesis materializes.
Colder-than-normal temperatures reinforcing the likelihood of accumulating snow during the Nov 30–Dec 3 period.
Overall confidence is high in a snowy pattern for the Great Lakes, though the specifics of any single winter storm affecting Michigan remain uncertain at this lead time.
