SNOWFALL IS INCOMING: We think..

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The CPC has kept its moderate risk of heavy snowfall. 

Ensemble guidance from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE has come into stronger agreement for the week-2 period, highlighting a pattern highly favorable for impactful winter weather across Michigan. Forecast 500-hPa height anomalies show a deep trough over the western CONUS and the Bering Sea, with pronounced ridging across the North Pacific into the Arctic. This setup supports a sustained push of cold air into the Northern Tier, including the Great Lakes region.

For Michigan, model solutions consistently indicate an extended period of lake-enhanced and synoptic snow as cold air flows across the relatively warm Great Lakes. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted statewide across northern Michigan and the U.P. from Nov 29–Dec 2, with a moderate risk focused on the southern and eastern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario, the Upper Peninsula, and northwestern Lower Michigan valid Nov 29–30. These areas are climatologically favored for significant lake-effect snow, and ensemble PETs support at least a 20% probability of 3-day snow totals exceeding the 85th percentile. ECMWF guidance even suggests localized chances of a foot or more of snow where bands remain persistent.

Beyond Nov 30, additional snowfall remains likely, though uncertainty increases regarding exact placement and storm totals.

While the cold air mass will be notably strong, Michigan has already experienced its first freeze, so minimum temperatures are not expected to drop into additional hazard categories at this time. However, the combination of persistent troughing, passing disturbances, and enhanced Great Lakes fluxes will support prolonged periods of wintry weather through early December.

Overall, confidence is high that Michigan will see multiple rounds of impactful snow, with the most significant risks centered on Nov 29–30 across the Upper Peninsula and northwest Lower Michigan.



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