WINTER... IS.... COMING!
GFS and ECMWF Finally Agree… Sort Of! ❄️
For once, the GFS and ECMWF weather models are actually on the same page. Southeastern Michigan looks to be mostly safe from significant snowfall! Well… mostly.
In our last update, we talked about how these two major weather models couldn’t agree on how strong the upcoming snowfall event might be. But now, both seem to line up on at least one point: cities like Detroit and St. Clair Shores likely won’t see much in the way of accumulating snow.
However, they’re still not completely in sync. The ECMWF model now leans toward a system-driven snow event, rather than heavy lake-effect snow. That doesn’t mean lake-effect snow is off the table it’s just expected to have a smaller impact than previously thought. The GFS agrees with that general idea, though it still shows lake-effect bands having a slightly bigger influence, especially closer to the lakeshore.
Overall, both models suggest that the main story will be a passing system bringing most of the snowfall, not so much the lake effect. It makes sense that their solutions are beginning to align after all, we’re only a few days out from the event. Still, there are differences in where and how much snow each model shows.
And as always, forecasts evolve. Weather models can both underestimate or overestimate totals, and surprises aren’t out of the question. For now, it looks like most of Southeastern Michigan can breathe a small sigh of relief but we’ll be keeping a close eye on any changes in the days ahead!
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