WINTER STORM INCOMING: We think.
...Snow. Again! That’s right, another winter storm is gearing up and setting its sights on Michigan. So what’s going on, and what can we expect? Let’s break it down.
Now, the forecast guidance is… let’s say diverse in its opinions.
Is it the best forecast in the world? No. But hey, im trying.
Our piece of upper-level energy for this system made landfall along the Pacific Coast early this morning. From there, forecast models carry it due east across the Central Plains before it lifts into the Great Lakes, with impacts beginning as early as 3 PM EST Saturday, though that timing may still shift.
By late Saturday night, a deep, well-defined dendritic growth zone sets up overhead, paired with a fully saturated troposphere from the surface up through nearly 10 km. Translation? Plenty of moisture and an ideal temperature profile for efficient snowfall production. Add in surface wind gusts that could top 30 mph, and we’re looking at reduced visibility, drifting on back roads, and some travel challenges, especially in open areas.
Given the current setup, snowfall rates near 1 inch per hour look entirely possible at times. A few “overachievers” could pop up where banding locks in, particularly along and just south of I-94, where drifting becomes more likely. We are watching the storm track closely, because if the low decides to slip a little farther south, that would cut down on the rain/snow mix for the southern counties and boost accumulations across some of Michigan’s most populated areas.
And maybe the wildest part of all this? For now, the Upper Peninsula is looking surprisingly quiet during this stretch, a pretty unusual twist for late November. That said, with this pattern, things can still change.
ECMWF:
GFS:
OTHERS:
And just for fun, here’s my own take:
Do note, I am not a professional forecaster.
And to make things even more exciting, while I was typing this, the National Weather Service issued Winter Storm Watches for several counties across western Michigan. So yes, this system is already making moves.
That’s the latest breakdown on the upcoming winter storm. Stay safe, stay warm, and have an amazing holiday, everyone!
