WINTER STORM INCOMING:

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Almost everyone can agree on one point: the Upper Peninsula is poised for a significant snowfall event. Our first system of the week is approaching with considerable force, and confidence continues to increase that it will deliver high-impact winter weather across the western UP.

Winter Storm Watches are set to go into effect tomorrow, with a widespread foot of snow possible across at least five counties in the western part of the peninsula. Several high resolution guidance suites now support isolated totals approaching 18 inches by Thursday morning, particularly in the higher terrain. As colder air deepens behind the initial system, an extended period of lake-effect snow is expected to develop Thursday into Friday. Given this setup, there is a strong potential for select locations to exceed two feet of snow by the end of the day Friday.

Winds will play a major role as well. Gusts will likely reach 40–50 mph across much of the state, and when combined with heavy snowfall, will create periods of blizzard-like conditions, especially west of Marquette. Travel across the corridor from Ironwood to Houghton, along with higher-elevation areas in Baraga and Marquette Counties, may become extremely hazardous or even impossible at times, with projected snowfall totals ranging from 10 to 18 inches and sharply reduced visibility throughout the event.

In the Lower Peninsula, conditions will be far more uncertain. Light lake-effect snow is expected to begin late Wednesday evening, but model guidance remains inconsistent regarding intensity, placement, and duration of any heavier bands. Unlike the strong agreement in the UP, the Lower Peninsula forecast is currently characterized by significant model spread, making it difficult to pinpoint impacts with confidence. A more definitive forecast for the Lower Peninsula will be issued tomorrow, once the data converges and the overall picture becomes clearer.

 ECMWF's take:
GFS's take:
Others:

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