SNOW INCOMING:
We have two winter systems on the way, and both will bring impactful snow to Michigan. Here’s your full breakdown of what to expect, when to expect it, and who is likely to see the heaviest totals.
NOTE: Tracking Michigan forecast maps are very experimental. This is why its a blog exclusive.
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System One: Tonight into Tuesday
A fast-moving Alberta clipper will be the first in our line, sliding across the Great Lakes. This initial wave will spread a general 2–5 inches of snow across much of northern Lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, providing a fresh blanket by Tuesday morning.
However, the most significant totals will be tied to a zone of low-level convergence setting up over Lake Michigan and funneling into the eastern U.P. This will allow a tight, persistent lake-effect band to develop from Frankfort and the Manitou Islands northeastward through Paradise and Whitefish Bay. Areas under this band may see 8–12 inches, locally higher if the band stalls for any extended period.
Farther south across the Lower Peninsula, moisture is limited and lift is weaker, so snowfall will taper off quickly toward I-96 and points south. Many locations from Grand Rapids southward may see a coating to 3 inches, and some areas may end up with no accumulation at all.
Travel impacts will be most significant across the U.P. and northern L.P., where blowing snow may drop visibility below one mile at times. Winds are expected to top 30 mph out of the northwest, creating drifting and difficult driving on open stretches of highway.
A brief lull in snowfall is expected by Tuesday evening, giving many areas a chance to catch their breath before our second system arrives.
System one forecast:
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System Two: Late Tuesday Night into Wednesday
After a short 8–12 hour break—possibly even shorter depending on timing—the second, stronger clipper moves in. This system has the potential to be more organized and more impactful.
Forecast guidance suggests that the parent low may deepen to around 985 mb as it drops southeast out of Canada. If this verifies, we can expect increasing winds, stronger mesoscale banding, and a more robust deformation zone.
For now, we're laying out broad snowfall zones of 1–3" and 2–5" for Michigan as a starting point, but we’re also highlighting a narrow 4–8" corridor from roughly Cadillac eastward into Bay County. This is the area most likely to sit under enhanced banding if the track lines up correctly.
That said, model consensus is still shaky, and the potential for track “wobbles” remains high.
As system two moves through on Wednesday, strong southerly flow ahead of the low will pull warmer air into Michigan. Temperatures across the southern half of the state may climb above freezing, changing snow over to rain, especially south of US-10.
This transition zone will be messy: slushy roads, reduced visibility, and a mix of precipitation types will be possible throughout Wednesday afternoon.
Behind the system, winds swing sharply to the northwest, ushering in colder air and partial clearing. Once the cloud cover breaks, we lose our daytime “insulation,” allowing temperatures to fall quickly. Any leftover moisture on roads may freeze into patches of black ice Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A flash freeze is not guaranteed, but a widespread refreeze risk is very much in play.
System 2 forecast:
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Timing
System One: Begins as early as 7 PM EST Tuesday in the U.P., continuing through early Tuesday morning.
System Two: Fills in late Tuesday night, peaks Wednesday morning through afternoon, and tapers off by 7 PM EST Wednesday.
Lake-effect snow: Additional lake-effect bands may redevelop early Thursday, especially along Lake Superior, with Lake Michigan’s shoreline also in the conversation.
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Final Thoughts
This is shaping up to be an active stretch of wintry weather for Michigan. Snowfall amounts will vary sharply over short distances, and small track shifts could dramatically alter who sees the heaviest totals. We’ll continue refining the forecast as new data comes in, with a more confident forecast coming.
Stay tuned for continued updates as these systems evolve. Winter is officially knocking on the door, again.
